Can South Africa Survive?: Five Minutes to Midnight by D. Brewer

By D. Brewer

A selection of essays at the modern problem and alter in South Africa which considers the overseas political place, Afrikaner politics, South African economics, inner Black politics, The United Democratic entrance, Black exchange unions and constitutional change.

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W. J. Foltz, 'Africa in Great-Power Strategy', in W. J. Foltz and H. S. Brewer (eds), Arms and the Africans, New Haven, Yale University Press, 1985, pp. 15-16. J. E. Spence, 'Soviet Relations with Africa', Soviet Jewish Affairs, 15, I, 1985, p. 126. The relevant clauses in the Angolan Treaty read as follows: 34 The Role of the Superpowers 'VII. In the event of any situation arising that may create a danger to peace or disturb peace, the High Contracting Parties shall immediately establish contact with each other in order to co-ordinate their positions in the interests of removing the danger or restoring peace ....

Besides, neither of these instances approached anything like the prominence in American domestic politics of the South African problem. An American proposal to intervene by force against a white government involved in a brutal race war, especially if in collaboration with the Russians, would be likely to provoke as violent a white backlash in the United States as a pro-white intervention would a black one. If ever a joint superpower intervention in southern Africa were to get off the ground, therefore, at a minimum the following conditions would have to be met.

Thirdly, there would need to be in office in Washington a Republican president who combined enormous popularity with excellent anti-communist credentials and was not looking for a further term in office. And finally, both superpowers would need to be fairly certain that the South Africans would not in some fashion resort to the use of nuclear weapons. In other words, joint superpower military intervention in southern Africa is, to put it mildly, highly unlikely. For much the same reasons, plus South African resistance, an international conference jointly presided over by the superpowers, in the style of that presently being canvassed for the Middle East, is unlikely 30 The Role of the Superpowers to get off the ground, though Starushenko has implicitly suggested this by indicating that 'the peaceful settlement of the conflict might be expedited by resorting to the institution of international guarantees, the sides selecting the guarantors by agreement from among prestigious international organizations or individual states'.

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Can South Africa Survive?: Five Minutes to Midnight by D. Brewer
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